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Part 4: vsM Study

Here is a graphic of the probabilities I've calculated so far.

To help read this table, let's say that I want to find out the probability of success for my character to kick down a door. The GM rules that I use my Offense attribute. My character sheet says I have an Offense of 3.

The GM also rules that his is a Hard challenge, so I need to match or beat 10.

I draw 3 cards and take the highest valued card. If that card is a 10 or better, I have success.

The probability of my success is 77.5566%

I have added values that don't appear in the SRD. Those values do not yet have a descriptor like Easy or Very Hard. So in a by-the-book game of vsM, you would never be asked to match a Queen or better. The GM would only have you match or beat 4,6,10,King,or Ace.

I am exploring other values within a standard deck of cards. Later, I'll explore values in my Five Suited deck of cards.

    Part 3, other vsM SRD ideas

I would add two more targets above Impossible for supers types of games:

Inhuman (drawing a black ace will count as a success)
Divine (drawing the Ace of Spades will count as a success)

The odds are steep, even for someone with a 6 attribute, but not crazy. There is a 22% chance of an Inhuman success and a 12% chance for a Divine success.

Then again, this would give room for attributes up to 8 for the Cosmic powered characters.

Interesting...

    Part 2, the math of the vsM system.

To make a grittier game, change the starting attributes to one 3, two 2's, and a 1.

Change the target values to 10 + the face cards.

Your highest attribute will have a 56% chance of success to do a Hard thing. In other words, draw at least one Queen with three tries from a deck of cards.

I haven't even attempted to deal with opposed draws. Oof! the Math!