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Part 4: vsM Study
Here is a graphic of the probabilities I've calculated so far.
To help read this table, let's say that I want to find out the probability of success for my character to kick down a door. The GM rules that I use my Offense attribute. My character sheet says I have an Offense of 3.
The GM also rules that his is a Hard challenge, so I need to match or beat 10.
I draw 3 cards and take the highest valued card. If that card is a 10 or better, I have success.
The probability of my success is 77.5566%
I have added values that don't appear in the SRD. Those values do not yet have a descriptor like Easy or Very Hard. So in a by-the-book game of vsM, you would never be asked to match a Queen or better. The GM would only have you match or beat 4,6,10,King,or Ace.
I am exploring other values within a standard deck of cards. Later, I'll explore values in my Five Suited deck of cards.